Going For Brokers

NEW YORK – The S&P financial sub-index may be up 20% since Sept. 11, but many brokerage stocks haven’t fully recovered. In fact, the six brokerages listed below are down an average 32% relative to their 52-week highs and seem cheap by other fundamental measures.

Example: Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS – news – people ), which traded as high as $120 a year ago. At a recent $84, the stock goes for 2.4 times book value versus a three-year average multiple of 3.5.

Based on earnings estimates gathered by Thomson Financial/IBES, Goldman Sachs is expected to earn $4.93 per share this year and $5.90 per share in 2003. Goldman sells for 17 times its 2002 forecast, 14 times the 2003 number and 20 times latest 12-month earnings per share.

Another plus: Despite talk of “synergies” between commercial and investment banking operations, larger financial conglomerates such as Citigroup (nyse: C – news – people ) and J.P. Morgan Chase (nyse: JPM – news – people ) aren’t likely to steal away Goldman’s lucrative work in equity underwriting and mergers and acquisitions. David Trone, brokerage analyst at Prudential Securities, points out that independent investment banks remain the top firms in the industry in these areas.

Full story at Forbes.com

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The Positive Side To Nation Building

NEW YORK – Recent events may have taken a little of the luster off emerging-markets plays. In a December 2001 report, the International Monetary Fund identified weak commodity prices (namely oil), tourism declines and other problems threatening the outlook for developing economies. For 2002, the IMF predicts private direct investment in emerging markets will drop 12% versus 2001.

The picture, however, isn’t all gloomy. A notable bright spot is China, whose economy the IMF expects to expand 7% in 2002. India and Pakistan, if they can avoid a war, also show promising growth prospects.

Another encouraging sign: Argentina’s economic problems seem contained within its borders for the moment. “This is a very different world from 1997,” according to Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown. “I think people were better prepared this time around,” says Hooper. Along with a new U.S. attitude of engagement, Hooper thinks the global effort by central banks to ease interest rates will help emerging economies.

Robert N. Phillips Jr., chief investment officer at Walnut Asset Management ($700 million in assets), looks for long-term secular trends with what he calls a “capital-spending tailwind.” One such theme: the development of infrastructure in emerging economies.

“Lesser-developed countries are looking to get into the game,” he says, “and to do that, they’re going to have to develop their roads, highways, bridges and communications systems.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Inside Stories

Over the past six months insiders at chicken giant Tyson Foods have purchased 37,000 shares of their company, versus insider sales of 3,500 shares. John McMillin, Prudential Securities equity analyst, thinks the net buying reflects positively on Tyson’s plans to acquire beef processor IBP. “Insiders clearly think the bet on IBP is a good one,” he opines.

Wall Street hasn’t shared in that optimism. At a recent $11 Tyson’s stock is not much above book value and is well off a five–year peak of $26.


Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com

Overseas Platinum

NEW YORK – For those looking to invest overseas, the Forbes Platinum 400 may be a good place to start. While the list sets tough requirements for qualifying companies, there are none regarding geography. The list is dotted with foreign firms that have a significant presence in the U.S. market and whose shares are either listed in the U.S. or trade here as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).

Example: Holland’s Royal Ahold (nyse: AHO – news – people ), which runs supermarkets and food service operations in 27 countries. The $26 billion (market value) company made the list thanks in part to its five-year (annualized) sales growth of 30%. Platinum rivals Kroger (nyse: KR – news – people ) and Safeway (nyse: SWY – news – people ) managed just 13% and 15%, respectively.

Full story at Forbes.com

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