Political Risk Watch: Nanotechnology

In print and online, Forbes has chronicled the amazing potential of nanotechnology, or the ability to see, manipulate and manufacture things that are as small as one-billionth of a meter.

At a Wednesday event in Washington, D.C., a panel of experts didn’t play down that potential.

“The future of nanotechnology is extraordinary,” said J. Clarence Davies, a former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) official who now serves as a senior adviser to the Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “When you start crossing it with synthetic biology and artificial intelligence and so on, science fiction looks very pale in comparison.”

Lately, however, the market has not shared in the enthusiasm, at least when it comes to pure-play nanotechnology stocks. In the table below, we show four that have dropped more than 45% from their respective 52-week highs.

Uncertainty stalks these companies. Altair Nanotechnologies (nasdaq: ALTI – news – people ), Nanophase Technologies (nasdaq: NANX – news – people ) and Nanosphere (nasdaq: NSPH – news – people ) have never turned a profit, and security analysts project that all will lose money for their current and upcoming fiscal years.

Another source of uncertainty, although not necessarily a negative, is regulation. Thicker red tape surrounding nanotech is practically inevitable, say Davies and colleagues, who have released a 28-page regulatory agenda for the next administration.

Full story at Forbes.com

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Report: Deal Making Will Stay Aloft In Aerospace

Washington, D.C. – Over the past 12 months, valuations have plunged in the aerospace and defense sector. Last July, for example, U.S. aerospace and defense stocks traded at an average 23 times trailing-12-month earnings, according to an aggregate compiled by FactSet Research Systems. The average price-to-earnings ratio presently: 13.

Despite the compression in the average earnings multiple, it is not easy to be bullish here, as business has turned nasty for commercial aerospace customers. Tuesday, the Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade group, announced that first-quarter expenses for airlines grew at the fastest pace since 1980. The biggest culprit: a 51% year-over-year increase in the average price of aviation fuel.

Beyond pure contrarianism, do bargain hunters have any reason to jump into aerospace and defense? One may be consolidation. As some investors retreat from these companies, corporate deal makers remain interested, according to a report released Monday by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The accounting firm says the sector saw $31 billion worth of aerospace and defense acquisition activity worldwide in 2007, the most since a peak of $46 billion in 2000, and forecasts significant merger and acquisition activity for the next one to two years.

Full story at Forbes.com

Defensive Defense Stock: Saab

With rising energy prices threatening commercial aviation, aerospace and defense stocks haven’t fared well in the global equities downturn. Year-to-date, according to an index tallied by FactSet Research Systems, the stocks of aerospace and defense companies worldwide have dropped 19% in dollar terms, versus an aggregate decline of 14% across all sectors globally.

At least one aerospace and defense stock, however, has bucked the year-to-date trend: Saab, the Swedish maker of military aircraft, aviation components and command and control systems. The share price for the Stockholm-headquartered company, not to be confused with the auto brand now owned by General Motors (nyse: GM – news – people ), is up 17% so far in 2008.

Even with the uptick, Saab still looks cheap. Its Stockholm-listed shares sell for just 10 times the average analyst estimate for 2009 earnings per share. Contrast that with equivalent multiples of 12 for Lockheed Martin (nyse: LMT – news – people ) and 13 for Raytheon (nyse: RTN – news – people ). Those interested in international investing should put Saab on their radar screen.

“In this turbulent time, we believe investors will appreciate this type of company more and more,” says Mikael LasĂ©en, a Stockholm-based analyst at Kaupthing Bank, speaking of Saab. “It is of course a political risk, but clearly you don’t have to worry about the business cycle and consumer spending that much.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Seven Cheap Global Stock Picks

Raymond Mills can’t talk about the job he held before signing on to T. Rowe Price. Literally. With a doctorate in aerospace engineering from Stanford University, he worked on some sort of national security-related program until a decade ago. “It was classified,” is all he’ll say.

Less spooky is the way the manager of T. Rowe Price’s $1.5 billion (assets) Overseas Stock Fund picks stocks. Some of Mills’ selections are household names. Others are practically unpronounceable. All, in his view, offer above-average earnings growth–thanks to superior products, market dominance or exposure to fast-growing economies–at reasonable prices. For investors, that adds up to a way to ride out and profit from the market’s current volatility.

Toyota Motor (nyse: TM – news – people ), a Mills favorite, is a good example. “Honda and Toyota are leaders in hybrid technology and fuel efficiency,” he says. “They’re going to be winners over time.”

Long-term promise aside, Toyota shares are down 20% from a 52-week high amid the malaise in the global auto business. That has left the stock selling at nine times latest-12-month earnings, versus a five-year average of 13.

“Maybe we don’t think it’s going to be a great stock for the next year,” he says of many of the shares he tucks away, “but we think it’s going to be a great story over the next two to three or five years.”

Full story at Forbes.com

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